Forecasting and Wargaming
54 episodes
#6208: Israel's 120-Seat Forecasting Ministry
A windowless office, a serious budget, and one job: forecast Israel's 120-seat Knesset as well as it can be done.
#6204: Two Humans, One Table Each: Calling Israel's Election
No models this time — just two seat-by-seat tables, fifty vs. fifty-nine, and a defector hunt two seats short of a majority.
#6202: Israel Votes, Part 6: Asking the Decision Models
Two decision models, identical evidence, one table of betting prices — and both flip their pick for Israel's next leader.
#6086: Reading Polymarket as an OSINT Feed
Polymarket's API turns prediction market prices into a live probability feed — no wallet, no trading, just reading the world's largest market.
#6073: Israel Votes, Part 4: The Forecast
Three forecasting methods, seven synthetic voters and one prediction for Israel's 27 October election: Yashar 21, Likud 20, and nobody reaches 61.
#5179: Covert Ops That Weaponize Division—What's Real
From KGB active measures to Taiwan's elections: which covert influence operations are documented, and which dramatic claims don't hold up.
#5109: Inside Israel's Snap Drills: Rehearsing the Worst Day
What actually happens when a country rehearses its own worst day? Inside the surprise, the planning, and the October 7 lessons reshaping Israeli dr...
#4622: Embassy Registration and Travel Prep for Risky Regions
How to layer diplomatic contacts, STEP registration, and paper backups into a pre-travel protocol that works when networks fail.
#4056: How a $150 Geopolitical AI Simulation Scales to $15,000
One simulation run costs $150. To get meaningful results, you need 100 runs—that’s $15,000.
#3768: Testing Premises Before They Fail
How structured techniques and AI frameworks challenge assumptions in high-stakes scenarios before they become failures.
#3761: How Countries Warn Civilians of Danger
From color codes to sirens: how the US, Israel, UK, and France tell civilians when danger is real.
#3760: Three Days to a Bomb: Iran's 60-Day Window
Iran is 95% of the way to weapons-grade uranium. Three days of centrifuge work could finish the job.
#3749: Triage When Everything Breaks at Once
When a roof leak, server failure, and lease termination hit simultaneously, here's how to prioritize.
#3594: When Europe Tilts and America Cracks: Israel's Compound Scenario
What happens when Europe's politics shift and US support fractures simultaneously? A scenario analysis on Israel's future.
#3351: Inside Israel's Economic Survival Under Total Sanctions
How a modern trade-dependent economy rewires itself when the world cuts ties overnight.
#3143: How a Swiss Sub "Sank" a US Carrier
Inside the adjudication pipeline that turned a simulated torpedo into a real Navy crisis.
#3063: Inside the Secret Service Advance Team
How 200 specialized agents secure every presidential movement — from hotel ballrooms to G20 summits.
#2396: Predicting War: The Science of Geopolitical Forecasting
How do experts predict wars before they happen? Explore the high-stakes world of geopolitical forecasting, from Cold War models to AI-driven simula...
#2386: Decoding 'Concrete Threats' in Intelligence Reports
What does 'concrete threat' really mean in intelligence? Explore how agencies assess risks and communicate warnings without compromising security.
#2308: When AI Forecasts Collide: Geopol Model Divergence
Five AI models forecast the Iran-Israel-US crisis — and their disagreements reveal surprising insights about geopolitical reasoning.
#2200: Reading the Geopolitical Forecast in Oil Prices
When markets spike on breaking news, which price signals actually tell you what traders believe will happen next—and which ones are already priced in?
#2190: Simulating Extreme Decisions With LLMs
LLMs fail at the exact problem wargaming was built to solve—simulating irrational, extreme decision-makers. A new study reveals why.
#2176: Geopol Forecast: How will the Iran-Israel war evolve following the failure of...
A geopolitical simulation reveals why the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire is a "loaded spring"—and what happens when it breaks in the next 10 days.
#2145: Why Skin in the Game Beats Silicon in Forecasting
In April 2026, AI wargames predicted a 55% chance of the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding, while prediction markets priced it at 68%. Here's why the g...