Forecasting and Wargaming
54 episodes · Page 2 of 3
#2144: AI Wargaming: One Model or Many?
Should geopolitical AI simulations use one model or many? We debate the pros and cons of a single-model approach.
#2143: Simulating Geopolitics Under Asymmetric Information
A two-stage AI pipeline predicted a 4% chance the Iran-Israel ceasefire would survive a month, using Monte Carlo simulations and an LLM council.
#2140: A Functional Chaos: Middle East 2027
By 2027, the Middle East is reshaped by the Islamabad Truce. We predict the rise of the Council of Five in Iran and the Negev tech migration.
#2137: Wargaming's Methodology, Not Magic
Most AI wargames are just expensive role-play. Here's the professional methodology they're missing.
#2136: The Brutal Problem of AI Wargame Evaluation
Most AI wargame simulations skip evaluation entirely or rely on token expert reviews. This is the field's biggest credibility problem.
#2135: Is Your AI Wargame Signal or Noise?
Monte Carlo methods promise statistical rigor for AI wargaming, but the line between genuine insight and sampling noise is thinner than you think.
#2134: The Fog-of-War Problem in AI Wargaming
Why shared AI brains make secret-keeping a nightmare, and the four architectural patterns researchers use to fix it.
#2131: The CIA Is on GitHub
In-Q-Tel is on GitHub. Explore the IC's strategic investment arm and its use of open-source AI for wargaming.
#2130: The Prediction Market Leak: Who Profited from the Iran Ceasefire?
A ceasefire in Tehran: peace or prelude to chaos? Our experts predict the next 30 days of war, markets, and revolution.
#1897: The Pentagon Pizza Index: Predicting War with Pepperoni
Forget satellites and spies—the most reliable indicator of imminent military action might be the Google Maps 'busy' meter at a Domino's.
#1845: The Silent Killer of Israel’s Economy
The cost of war isn't just missiles—it's the billions lost when a nation goes into "semi-hibernation."
#1590: Why OSINT Maps Outperform the Nightly News
Discover how OSINT and specialized think tanks are replacing legacy media to provide high-fidelity reporting on modern global conflicts.
#1537: Why News Maps Won’t Show You Who Is Actually Winning
Explore the massive divide between mainstream news narratives and the tactical reality of the escalating Iran-Israel conflict.
#1439: The Decision Stack: How We Master the Art of Choice
From Cold War near-misses to Bayesian networks, discover the frameworks that help us navigate complexity and make better decisions.
#1432: The $7 Billion Bet: Prediction Markets as Infrastructure
Prediction markets are evolving from niche bets into vital financial infrastructure. Discover how "information finance" is reshaping global risk.
#1407: Can One Million LLMs Predict the Next Global Crisis?
Discover how an undergraduate student built a viral simulation of one million AI agents to predict social behavior and policy outcomes.
#1378: The Power of Professional Dissent: Why Being Wrong is Right
Stop being a "yes-man" and start being a risk architect. Discover how professional dissent is becoming a high-value skill in the age of AI.
#1232: The Art of War as a Mental Operating System
Discover why a 2,500-year-old manual remains the gold standard for CEOs and generals. We deconstruct Sun Tzu for the modern age.
#1195: The Blind Spot: When Radar Gaps Make Every Missile a Nuclear Threat
When radar goes dark, how do you tell a conventional missile from a nuclear one? Explore the terrifying physics of pre-launch ambiguity.
#1107: Betting on the Brink: Polymarket and the Future of War
Can you profit from a missile strike? Explore how Polymarket turns global crises into high-stakes, real-time prediction markets.
#981: Why Most Americans Under 55 Just Turned on Israel
A historic shift is underway as Americans under 55 move away from a pro-Israel consensus. We dive into the data behind this "Opinion Gap."
#893: The Art of Red Teaming: Why You Must Break Your Own Plans
Learn why the most resilient organizations pay people to prove them wrong and how red teaming techniques can prevent catastrophic failures.
#733: How Generals Learn to Think
How do modern generals use ancient history to plan for AI warfare? Explore the high-stakes world of professional military education.
#706: DIY Geopolitical Intelligence: Building Your Dashboard
Learn how to bridge the gap between elite intelligence tools and home-grown situational awareness dashboards using AI.