Elections
107 episodes
#6204: Two Humans, One Table Each: Calling Israel's Election
No models this time — just two seat-by-seat tables, fifty vs. fifty-nine, and a defector hunt two seats short of a majority.
#6202: Israel Votes, Part 6: Asking the Decision Models
Two decision models, identical evidence, one table of betting prices — and both flip their pick for Israel's next leader.
#6200: What Israeli Election Polls Hide Behind Seat Counts
A new open source tool simulates 100,000 election allocations from a single poll — and shows why "4 seats" is less certain than it sounds.
#6101: When Chatbots Run for Office
From a Wyoming mayoral bot to Albania's AI minister, six real attempts to put machines on the ballot — and what they reveal about empty platforms.
#6100: Voting From an Embassy: Israel's 4,860-Voter Election
101 polling stations in 99 missions, 4,860 eligible voters, 30 hours of polls rolling west with the sun.
#6091: ישראל בוחרת, חלק ב׳: על מה המפלגות עומדות
רוב המפלגות בישראל לא פרסמו מצע כבר שנים. הנה מה שהן אומרות בפועל שיעשו, והנושאים שבהם הן שותקות.
#6084: ישראל בוחרת, חלק א׳: מי באמת רץ
שלושים ושמונה רשימות, שני גושים ואחוז חסימה אחד: המפה המלאה של הבחירות לכנסת ב־27 באוקטובר 2026.
#6078: Reading Polymarket's Israel Election Prices
25 live markets, $47M on one question — what the money says about Israel's next prime minister.
#6076: How AI Actually Predicts Elections
Bayesian models, "silicon sampling," and agent societies — what actually works for forecasting votes, and what's just fashion.
#6075: Israel's Pollsters: Who Calls the Race Before You Vote
Nine days out, a tour of Israel's polling culture — the pollsters who matter, the famous misses, and the numbers to watch on election night.
#6073: Israel Votes, Part 4: The Forecast
Three forecasting methods, seven synthetic voters and one prediction for Israel's 27 October election: Yashar 21, Likud 20, and nobody reaches 61.
#6066: Israel Votes, Part 2: What the Parties Stand For
Most Israeli parties haven't published a platform in years. Here's what they actually say they'll do — and where they stay silent.
Also available in:עברית
#6065: Israel Votes, Part 3: A Renter's Voting Recommendation
A Jerusalem renter wants to know which party actually helps him. We scored Israel's parties against his views on rent, prices, and daily life.
#6064: Israel Votes, Part 1: Who Is Actually Running
Thirty-eight lists, a first on-time election since 1988, and a ballot full of parties that didn't exist eighteen months ago. Here's the map.
Also available in:עברית
#5902: Four Tribes, One Ballot: Israel's Coalition Maze
Thirty-eight parties, a 3.25% threshold, and four groups that don't agree on what the country is even for.
#5872: When Citizen Engagement Becomes Paperwork Theater
Four names for the same thing: when cities consult residents to produce receipts, not change. A look at participation-washing.
#5752: Two Frances, One Protest: Reading the Same Streets Differently
A high school walkout over unfilled teaching posts became a national movement — and two completely incompatible stories about what it means.
#5691: When the System Feels Rigged: A 180-Year Pattern
Life expectancy is stalling across the English-speaking world. History says that signal has appeared before — and what followed was reform or rupture.
#5661: Same Pills, Same Gun, New State, New Crime
Fifty states, fifty legal answers. What happens when ordinary conduct is a felony one zip code over?
#5569: Measuring Democracy Beyond Voter Turnout
Voter turnout is one reading from one instrument. What else tells us whether a democracy is actually engaged?
#5568: Israel's Pragmatic Center: Housing, Groceries, and the 2026 Vote
Israelis say housing and cost of living decide their vote — but the campaign is about everything else. Can the pragmatic center break the pattern?
#5340: The Rise and Fall of the Aristocracy
Aristocracy meant rule by the best—a legal class, not just wealth. Why did the word vanish into "the one percent"?
#5046: Mapping Purple: How Texas Really Votes
Texas isn't just red. We break down the blue cities, red rural expanse, and the purple suburbs that decide elections.
#5042: The Town That Vanished From the Map
How do real, populated communities simply disappear from official maps? We explore the strange phenomenon of forgotten towns.