Polymarket
Decentralized prediction market platform
Episodes
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#6073: Israel Votes, Part 4: The ForecastThree forecasting methods, seven synthetic voters and one prediction for Israel's 27 October election: Yashar 21, Likud 20, and nobody reaches 61. -
#5947: Who Actually Trades on Polymarket?Three percent of wallets drive 90% of Polymarket's volume — and most retail accounts quietly lose money. Here's who's really on the other side. -
#2986: China and Russia's High-Speed Pipeline to IranHow China and Russia resupplied Iran in weeks, not months — and what it means for US power. -
#2200: Reading the Geopolitical Forecast in Oil PricesWhen markets spike on breaking news, which price signals actually tell you what traders believe will happen next—and which ones are already priced in? -
#2145: Why Skin in the Game Beats Silicon in ForecastingIn April 2026, AI wargames predicted a 55% chance of the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding, while prediction markets priced it at 68%. Here's why the g... -
#1445: Lloyd’s of London: The World’s Original Prediction MarketDiscover how Lloyd’s of London operates as a decentralized marketplace for global tail risk and the future of parametric insurance. -
#1432: The $7 Billion Bet: Prediction Markets as InfrastructurePrediction markets are evolving from niche bets into vital financial infrastructure. Discover how "information finance" is reshaping global risk. -
#1426: The Paper Barrel EconomyDiscover the hidden financial machinery of "paper barrels" and how futures and options protect the global economy from oil price shocks. -
#1107: Betting on the Brink: Polymarket and the Future of WarCan you profit from a missile strike? Explore how Polymarket turns global crises into high-stakes, real-time prediction markets.