Good Judgment Project
Research project on superforecasting
Episodes
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#2396: Predicting War: The Science of Geopolitical ForecastingHow do experts predict wars before they happen? Explore the high-stakes world of geopolitical forecasting, from Cold War models to AI-driven simula... -
#2145: Why Skin in the Game Beats Silicon in ForecastingIn April 2026, AI wargames predicted a 55% chance of the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding, while prediction markets priced it at 68%. Here's why the g...