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#2147: Israel's New Axis: Beyond Washington
Forget the US map: Israel's real 2026 allies are in the Gulf and India.
#2146: The AI Wargame's Flat Hierarchy Problem
AI wargames treat NGOs and nuclear powers as equals. That's a dangerous flaw for real-world policy planning.
#2145: Why Skin in the Game Beats Silicon in Forecasting
In April 2026, AI wargames predicted a 55% chance of the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding, while prediction markets priced it at 68%. Here's why the g...
#2144: AI Wargaming: One Model or Many?
Should geopolitical AI simulations use one model or many? We debate the pros and cons of a single-model approach.
#2143: Simulating Geopolitics Under Asymmetric Information
A two-stage AI pipeline predicted a 4% chance the Iran-Israel ceasefire would survive a month, using Monte Carlo simulations and an LLM council.
#2142: The Nervous System of Multi-Agent Systems
We break down the plumbing that lets a parent agent know exactly when a subagent finishes, from message passing to lifecycle events.
#2141: Choosing Your Durable Execution Platform
Why building AI agents means managing infrastructure. We explore durable execution backends like Temporal and AWS Step Functions.
#2140: A Functional Chaos: Middle East 2027
By 2027, the Middle East is reshaped by the Islamabad Truce. We predict the rise of the Council of Five in Iran and the Negev tech migration.
#2139: AI Wargame Memory: Beyond the Context Window
Why simply extending context windows fails in multi-agent simulations, and how layered memory architectures preserve strategic fidelity.
#2138: Housing as National Defense in Israel
Why Israel's next election might focus on apartment prices instead of missiles—and how organizers are reframing housing as a security issue.
#2137: Wargaming's Methodology, Not Magic
Most AI wargames are just expensive role-play. Here's the professional methodology they're missing.
#2136: The Brutal Problem of AI Wargame Evaluation
Most AI wargame simulations skip evaluation entirely or rely on token expert reviews. This is the field's biggest credibility problem.
#2135: Is Your AI Wargame Signal or Noise?
Monte Carlo methods promise statistical rigor for AI wargaming, but the line between genuine insight and sampling noise is thinner than you think.
#2134: The Fog-of-War Problem in AI Wargaming
Why shared AI brains make secret-keeping a nightmare, and the four architectural patterns researchers use to fix it.
#2133: Engineering Geopolitical Personas: Beyond Caricatures
How to build LLMs that simulate state actors with strategic fidelity, not just surface mimicry.
#2132: The Referee's Dilemma: Epistemic Containment in LLM Simulations
Why do AI war games need a news blackout? We dissect the firewall that keeps LLM actors from cheating with real-world data.
#2131: The CIA Is on GitHub
In-Q-Tel is on GitHub. Explore the IC's strategic investment arm and its use of open-source AI for wargaming.
#2130: The Prediction Market Leak: Who Profited from the Iran Ceasefire?
A ceasefire in Tehran: peace or prelude to chaos? Our experts predict the next 30 days of war, markets, and revolution.
#2129: Shifting Left on Hallucinations
Stop hoping your AI doesn't lie. We explore the shift to deterministic guardrails, specialized judge models, and the tools making agents reliable.
#2128: The Victory Siren Sounds, But the Shelter Door Is Still Open
After a ceasefire announcement, why are Israelis still running to bomb shelters? The gap between official victory narratives and lived reality.