Geopolitics
International affairs, defense, intelligence, and regional conflicts
#2151: The Minefield of Information
The Strait of Hormuz is "open," but Iran can’t find its mines. We explore how this fog of war is a deliberate tactic.
#2149: Pakistan's Two-Track Diplomacy
Pakistan hosts US-Iran peace talks while its Defense Minister calls Israel a "cancerous state."
#2148: IRGC: From Street Militia to Regional Franchise
How did Iran's IRGC evolve from a domestic "People's Army" into a franchiser of militias across the Middle East?
#2147: Israel's New Axis: Beyond Washington
Forget the US map: Israel's real 2026 allies are in the Gulf and India.
#2145: Why Skin in the Game Beats Silicon in Forecasting
In April 2026, AI wargames predicted a 55% chance of the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding, while prediction markets priced it at 68%. Here's why the g...
#2143: Simulating Geopolitics Under Asymmetric Information
A two-stage AI pipeline predicted a 4% chance the Iran-Israel ceasefire would survive a month, using Monte Carlo simulations and an LLM council.
#2140: A Functional Chaos: Middle East 2027
By 2027, the Middle East is reshaped by the Islamabad Truce. We predict the rise of the Council of Five in Iran and the Negev tech migration.
#2138: Housing as National Defense in Israel
Why Israel's next election might focus on apartment prices instead of missiles—and how organizers are reframing housing as a security issue.
#2131: The CIA Is on GitHub
In-Q-Tel is on GitHub. Explore the IC's strategic investment arm and its use of open-source AI for wargaming.
#2130: The Prediction Market Leak: Who Profited from the Iran Ceasefire?
A ceasefire in Tehran: peace or prelude to chaos? Our experts predict the next 30 days of war, markets, and revolution.
#2128: The Victory Siren Sounds, But the Shelter Door Is Still Open
After a ceasefire announcement, why are Israelis still running to bomb shelters? The gap between official victory narratives and lived reality.
#2122: Israel’s Pivot: From Europe to the Middle East
The April 2026 conflict may have ended the "island strategy" for Israel, sparking a shift toward deep regional integration.
#2121: Israel's Russian Paradox: Arming the Enemy
Satellite imagery reveals Russian S-300 systems guarding Iran's Fordow site, reshaping Middle East security.
#2120: The 14-Day Ceasefire: A Tactical Halt, Not Peace
A 14-day "ceasefire" between Israel and Iran is underway, but experts call it a tactical timeout, not a resolution. Here's why.
#2119: Will Iran's Regime Collapse in a Year?
We break down the gap between headlines and reality in Tehran after the ceasefire and Khamenei's death.
#2118: Why a 14-Day Ceasefire Isn't Peace—It's a Reload
A ceasefire isn't peace; it's a technical timeout for factories and logistics. Here’s why both sides are racing to reload.
#2116: The Mathematical Nightmare of Air Defense
The math of stopping a shotgun blast with tweezers: why our missile defense fails against cluster munitions.
#2098: The Invisible War for the Radio Spectrum
Modern wars are won by controlling invisible waves, not just physical ground. Discover how electronic and cyber warfare merge to rewrite reality.
#2086: The Gravity of Power: Why We Split It
Why do we separate government powers? We trace the idea from Aristotle to Montesquieu and the US founders.
#2085: When One-Third Opts Out: Israel's Internal Demographic Divergence
Israel's population is shifting dramatically. The Haredi and Arab sectors are rising fast, reshaping the economy, military, and national identity.