Hey everyone, welcome back to My Weird Prompts. I am Corn, and I am joined as always by my brother, the man who has probably memorized the structural blueprints of every bunker in the Middle East and can tell you the exact curing time of high-density reinforced concrete.
Herman Poppleberry here. And while I do appreciate a good reinforced concrete wall with a high PSI rating, I think today we are going into a territory that requires a bit more than just a sturdy basement and a few cans of peaches. We are talking about the kind of events that redefine the word catastrophe.
Yeah, no kidding. Today’s prompt comes from Daniel, and it is a heavy one. He wants us to look at the absolute worst-case scenario regarding the Iranian nuclear threat. Specifically, what happens if the Islamic Republic actually crosses that final threshold and uses a weapon against a major population center in Israel or the United States. He also wants to know what we, as civilians, can actually do about it besides just staring at the horizon.
It is a sobering topic, Corn. We have touched on the technical side of the Iranian program in past episodes, but Daniel is asking us to look past the policy papers, the enrichment percentages, and the IAEA inspections. He wants us to look right into the heart of the disaster itself. The pizza analogy he used in his message is actually quite apt, though it is a very grim pizza we are talking about.
Right, the idea that they have all the ingredients ready. The highly enriched uranium, the delivery systems like the Shahab-three or the Fattah-one missiles, and the complex detonator designs. They just need to put it in the oven. And given that we are sitting here recording this in Jerusalem on February twenty-first, two thousand twenty-six, this is not just an academic exercise for us. It is something that feels very close to home.
Exactly. And to set the stage, we have to understand where we are right now in early two thousand twenty-six. The international community has been watching these enrichment levels at Fordow and Natanz creep up for years. We are well past the point of wondering if they can do it. The consensus among most intelligence agencies now is that the breakout time—the time needed to produce enough weapons-grade material for a single device—is measured in days or weeks, not months or years. The "pizza" is basically in the pre-heat phase.
So let’s start with the worst case. If we are looking at a strike on a major city, let’s say Tel Aviv or New York, what are we actually talking about in terms of the weapon itself? Are we talking about the kind of massive hydrogen bombs we saw during the Cold War, or something different?
That is a crucial distinction for our listeners to understand. Most experts believe that a first-generation Iranian weapon would likely be a fission device, similar in scale to the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. We are talking about something in the range of fifteen to twenty kilotons. Now, to be clear, that is "small" by modern strategic standards, where some Russian or American warheads are measured in hundreds of kilotons or even megatons, but it is still absolutely catastrophic for a modern urban environment. A fifteen-kiloton bomb is not a "tactical" firecracker; it is a city-killer.
Fifteen kilotons. Just to put that in perspective for everyone, that is the equivalent of fifteen thousand tons of high explosives going off at a single point. If that hits the center of a city, what is the immediate sequence of events? Walk us through the first few seconds.
It happens in three distinct phases of energy release. The first is the thermal radiation, or the flash. About thirty-five percent of the total energy is released as intense light and heat. If you are within a few kilometers and have a direct line of sight, the heat is enough to cause third-degree burns instantly and ignite flammable materials like curtains, paper, and dry wood. It is a literal wall of fire that moves at the speed of light. If you are looking at the blast when it happens, you are instantly blinded because the flash is brighter than a thousand suns.
And then comes the blast wave, which is what most people associate with an explosion.
Exactly. That is the second phase, accounting for about fifty percent of the energy. The air around the detonation is heated so quickly that it expands at supersonic speeds. This creates a high-pressure wave, measured in pounds per square inch, or PSI. For a fifteen-kiloton device, you are looking at a radius of about one point five to two kilometers where the overpressure is high enough to flatten most residential buildings. In a dense city like Tel Aviv or Manhattan, the death toll from the collapse of structures alone would be staggering. We are talking about glass shards becoming supersonic needles and entire office towers being turned into piles of rubble in seconds.
And the third phase is the radiation, which is the part that lingers.
Right. You have the initial burst of ionizing radiation—gamma rays and neutrons—which happens in the first minute. This is what causes acute radiation syndrome for those close to the epicenter who somehow survived the heat and blast. But then you have the long-term problem, which is fallout. This is what Daniel was specifically asking about. Fallout is the radioactive dust and ash that is sucked up into the mushroom cloud, irradiated by the explosion, and then drifts downwind.
This is where it gets complicated because fallout depends so much on the environment and the altitude of the burst. I remember you telling me that a ground burst creates much more fallout than an air burst.
That is a great point, Corn. If the weapon detonates high in the air—say, at two thousand feet—the fireball doesn't touch the ground. You get the maximum blast and heat radius, but you don't suck up thousands of tons of dirt and debris. It’s "cleaner" in a very relative sense. But if it is a ground burst, or near the ground, all that pulverized concrete and soil becomes radioactive and falls back down over a much larger area. That is the silent killer that can affect people dozens or even hundreds of kilometers away from the actual explosion, depending on the wind patterns.
So if we are looking at the immediate impact on a city like New York, we are talking about hundreds of thousands of immediate casualties. But then you have the secondary effects. The infrastructure. The power grid. Let's talk about the EMP.
The electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, is a major factor that people often overlook. A nuclear detonation creates a massive surge of electromagnetic energy that can fry electronics over a wide area. In a modern, hyper-connected city, that means the communication networks go down, the power grid fails, and even the microchips in cars and emergency vehicles could be rendered useless. Imagine the chaos of trying to coordinate a rescue effort when you can't use your phone, the internet is dark, and half the ambulances won't start because their engine control units are fried.
It is a total systemic collapse in the local area. And then you have the medical side. The hospitals in the vicinity would likely be destroyed or overwhelmed. The survivors with burns and radiation sickness would need specialized care that just wouldn't be available in the quantities required.
It is what emergency planners call a "black swan" event, but one that we have been predicting for decades. The scale of the trauma, both physical and psychological, is hard to overstate. And then you have the long-term effects. The economic impact of losing a global hub like New York or a regional hub like Tel Aviv would trigger a global depression almost overnight. The supply chains would shatter. The shipping routes through the Suez Canal or the Persian Gulf would be thrown into chaos as insurance rates for vessels skyrocket or the areas become war zones.
And we haven't even talked about the geopolitical response yet. If Iran were to use a nuclear weapon, the taboo that has held since nineteen forty-five would be broken. The retaliation would likely be nuclear as well. We are talking about the potential for a full-scale regional or even global nuclear exchange.
That is the ultimate worst case. A cascade of strikes. If Israel is hit, their "second strike" capability—their Dolphin-class submarines in the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean—would almost certainly launch a retaliatory strike on Iranian cities and military sites. This is often referred to as the "Samson Option." At that point, you are looking at tens of millions of deaths across the Middle East. The environmental impact alone, the soot and smoke blocking out the sun, could lead to what scientists call a "nuclear autumn" or a mini "nuclear winter," affecting global crop yields for years.
It is a nightmare scenario, Herman. Truly. But let’s bring it down to the level of the individual, which is what Daniel was asking about. In the face of something this massive, people often feel helpless. Daniel mentioned iodine tablets. Let’s talk about those. Are they the magic shield people think they are?
This is a really important point to clarify, because there is a lot of misinformation out there, and people are panic-buying these things on the internet. Potassium iodide, or KI, is not an "anti-radiation" pill. It does not protect your body from gamma rays, it doesn't protect you from the blast, and it doesn't stop you from getting radiation sickness if you are exposed to a high dose. Its only job is to protect one specific organ, your thyroid gland, from one specific isotope: radioactive iodine-one-thirty-one.
Right, because the thyroid is like a sponge for iodine. If you breathe in or ingest radioactive iodine from fallout, your thyroid will soak it up, and that can lead to thyroid cancer years later.
Exactly. By taking a potassium iodide tablet, you are essentially pre-loading your thyroid with stable, non-radioactive iodine. You fill up the sponge so it can't absorb the radioactive stuff. But here is the catch: you should only take it if there is a clear risk of internal contamination from fallout, and usually only under the direction of public health officials. Taking it too early or when it isn't needed can actually have side effects, especially for older adults or people with pre-existing thyroid conditions. It’s a tool, not a cure-all.
And it doesn't do anything for the other radioactive isotopes, like cesium-one-thirty-seven or strontium-ninety, which affect your bones and muscles.
Not a thing. So, while having iodine tablets in a first aid kit isn't a bad idea—especially for children and young adults who are more susceptible to thyroid issues—it is a very small piece of the puzzle. It is not a substitute for the most important thing you can do, which is the FEMA mantra: get inside, stay inside, and stay tuned.
Get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. Let’s break that down for the listeners. Why is getting inside so critical?
It is all about shielding, Corn. The more mass you have between you and the fallout, the better. If you are in a house, the center of the house on the ground floor is better than being near a window. If you have a basement, that is even better because you have the earth itself acting as a shield. The goal is to put layers of brick, concrete, and soil between you and the radioactive dust settling on the roof and the ground outside.
I have seen those charts where they show that even a few inches of lead or a few feet of earth can reduce your radiation dose by ninety-nine percent.
Precisely. Radiation follows the inverse square law, but it also gets blocked by density. We talk about "halving thickness"—the amount of material needed to cut the radiation in half. For gamma rays, that’s about one point five inches of lead, or seven point five inches of packed earth, or twelve inches of wood. So, if you are in a basement with two feet of dirt above you, you are significantly safer than someone in a wooden shed.
So if you hear that a detonation has occurred and you are downwind, you have a very short window to find the best shelter possible. You want to stay there for at least twenty-four to forty-eight hours, right?
At a minimum. That is when the radiation from the fallout is at its most intense. There is a rule of thumb called the "seven-ten rule." For every seven-fold increase in time after the explosion, the radiation intensity decreases by a factor of ten. So, after seven hours, the radiation is ten percent of what it was at one hour. After forty-nine hours—roughly two days—it is down to one percent. Staying put for those first two days is the difference between life and death.
So the "stay inside" part is about letting the worst of the radiation decay before you try to move. But what about the "stay tuned" part? If the EMP has knocked out the grid and the cell towers are down, how are we supposed to get information?
This is where the old-school tech comes in, and why I always nag you about having a "go-bag." A hand-cranked or battery-powered radio is an essential piece of gear. Emergency broadcasts will likely be sent out over AM and FM frequencies. In many countries, there are hardened communication systems designed to survive an EMP, at least to some degree. You need to know which way the wind is blowing, which areas are being evacuated, and where the clean water and food are being distributed. You cannot rely on your smartphone in this scenario.
That brings up another point. Water and food. If there is fallout everywhere, you can't just turn on the tap or go to the grocery store.
No, you absolutely cannot. Anything that has been exposed to the open air will be contaminated. You need sealed containers. Bottled water, canned goods, anything in a plastic or metal wrap. You want to have at least a two-week supply if you are serious about preparation. And here is a pro-tip: if you are outside when the fallout starts, you need to shed your outer layer of clothing before you enter your shelter. You are literally brushing off the radioactive dust. Put those clothes in a plastic bag and leave them as far away from your living area as possible. Then, wash your skin and hair thoroughly with soap and water, but do not use hair conditioner.
Wait, why no hair conditioner?
Conditioner is designed to bind to your hair and smooth it out. It can actually trap radioactive particles against your hair shafts, making it much harder to wash them off. Just use plain soap or shampoo. It’s a small detail, but in a nuclear scenario, details matter.
It feels so surreal to be talking about this in February of twenty twenty-six, like we are back in the nineteen fifties with the "duck and cover" drills. But the reality is that the technology has only become more accessible and the geopolitical tensions have only tightened. We are living in a world where the "pizza ingredients" are sitting on the counter.
It is a strange paradox, isn't it? We have all this incredible technology to connect the world, yet we are still grappling with the same existential threats that our grandparents did during the Cuban Missile Crisis. But I think the key difference now is the speed of information. Back then, the public was largely in the dark until the very last minute. Today, we can track enrichment levels and missile tests in real time. We have a better understanding of the risks, but that also brings a higher level of anxiety.
Which is why Daniel’s question about whether to wait for government guidance is so relevant. In a crisis of this magnitude, can we actually rely on the government to give us timely advice?
That is a tough one to answer without sounding cynical. In the immediate aftermath of a strike, the government will be in absolute crisis mode. Communication channels will be jammed. There will be a lot of conflicting information. My advice would be to have a plan in place before anything happens. Know where your nearest shelter is. Have your emergency kit ready. Understand the basics of fallout protection. If you wait for the government to tell you what to do in the middle of a nuclear emergency, you might be waiting too long. You need to be your own first responder for those first seventy-two hours.
So, proactive preparation is the key. Not in a panicked way, but in a matter-of-fact way. It is like having a fire extinguisher in your kitchen. You hope you never have to use it, but you are glad it is there if a grease fire starts.
Exactly. And let’s talk about the psychological aspect of this. The fear of nuclear war is a very real thing, and it can be paralyzing. But knowledge is an antidote to fear. When you understand how these things work—when you know that a fifteen-kiloton bomb isn't the end of the world for everyone, that there are things you can do to increase your chances of survival—it gives you a sense of agency. You aren't just a victim; you are a survivor with a plan.
I think that is an important point. We often see these things in movies as a total wipeout where everyone just evaporates. But the reality is more nuanced. Even in a worst-case scenario, there will be millions of survivors, and those survivors will need to know how to navigate a very dangerous new reality. They will need to know about radiation decay, water purification, and community resilience.
Right. And it is not just about the individual. It is about the community. If you are prepared, you are in a better position to help your neighbors. You aren't just another person panicking and clogging up the roads. You are someone who can provide a radio, or clean water, or basic first aid. That kind of resilience is what helps a society recover from a disaster. We saw it during the pandemic, and we see it after major earthquakes. Human beings are remarkably good at coming together when things get dire.
We have talked about the US and Israel, but the impact on Iran itself would be just as devastating. The regime there is playing a very dangerous game of brinkmanship. They are using the nuclear program as a shield, but if they ever actually use it, that shield becomes a target.
It is the logic of Mutually Assured Destruction, or MAD. It worked during the Cold War because both sides were rational actors who understood that a nuclear war could not be won. The concern with Iran is whether that same logic applies. Some analysts worry that the ideological goals of the regime might override the rational calculation of survival. If you believe you are fighting a holy war, the math of MAD might look different to you.
That is the big unknown. And it is why the diplomacy and the sanctions and the covert operations to slow down the program are so vital. Every day that passes without a weapon being used is a victory for the status quo. But we also have to be realistic. The "pizza" is almost done.
We have to be clear-eyed about that. We can't just hope it goes away. We have to be prepared for the possibility that the diplomacy fails. And being prepared doesn't mean being a "doomsday prepper" with a year's supply of freeze-dried ice cream. It means understanding the science and having a basic plan.
So, to summarize for our listeners, the worst case is a nuclear strike on a major city, leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths, a collapse of infrastructure, and a potential global conflict. The immediate dangers are heat and blast, while the long-term danger is fallout.
And for the individual, the best preparation is the three pillars. Get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. Have a two-week supply of water and food. Have a battery-powered radio. And only use iodine tablets if you are in the path of fallout and have been advised to do so by professionals. Don't go out and buy a lead suit; just make sure your basement is clear of junk and you have some heavy plastic sheeting to seal off vents.
It is a lot to take in, but I think it is a necessary conversation. We have been doing this show for seven hundred and twenty-six episodes now, and we have covered a lot of weird and wonderful things. But sometimes the weird prompts are the ones that force us to look at the darkest possibilities of the human condition.
It is part of the job, Corn. If we only talked about the fun stuff, we wouldn't be doing justice to the complexity of the world we live in. And I think our listeners appreciate that we don't shy away from these topics. They want the truth, even when the truth is terrifying.
I hope so. It certainly makes for a more intense recording session. But I think we have covered the bases here. We have looked at the physics, the fallout, and the preparation. Is there anything else you want to add, Herman?
Just one thing. While we are talking about these extreme scenarios, it is important to remember that there are thousands of people working every day to prevent them. Diplomats, intelligence officers, scientists, activists. The world isn't just sitting by and letting this happen. There is a massive global effort to keep the nuclear genie in the bottle. We shouldn't lose sight of that.
That is a good reminder. It is not a foregone conclusion. It is a risk that we have to manage. And part of managing that risk is being informed. Knowledge is the first line of defense.
Exactly. Knowledge is power, even when the topic is as overwhelming as a nuclear explosion.
Well said. I think we can leave it there for today. This has been a heavy one, but hopefully a useful one for everyone listening. If you have any thoughts on this or any other topic, you can always reach us at show at my weird prompts dot com.
And if you are enjoying the show, or at least finding it informative, we would really appreciate a quick review on your podcast app. It really does help other people find us, even when we are talking about the end of the world.
Yeah, it helps keep the lights on here in Jerusalem. You can find us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts. Also, check out our website at my weird prompts dot com for the full archive and our RSS feed.
Thanks for sticking with us through this one. It wasn't easy, but it was important.
Definitely. We will be back next time with something hopefully a little lighter, but you never know what Daniel or the rest of you are going to send our way.
That is the beauty of the show. Stay safe out there, everyone.
Thanks for listening to My Weird Prompts. We will see you in the next episode. Goodbye!
Goodbye!
