Hey everyone, welcome back to My Weird Prompts. I am Corn, and I am joined as always by my brother, Herman. Usually, we start the show with a voice note from our housemate Daniel, but today we decided to take the wheel ourselves. We have been looking at the regional map here in Jerusalem, and frankly, we felt it was time for a definitive, clinical audit of the primary threat facing our home. There is a dangerous illusion of deterrence that has settled over some parts of the world, a feeling that because we have the best shields, the arrows no longer matter. But a shield is a reactive tool. To truly secure our future, we have to look at the arrows themselves. We have to catalog every vector of attack, every engineering choice made in Tehran, and understand that their deterrent is not a stalemate; it is a target list for our eventual survival.
Herman Poppleberry here. And you are right, Corn. We often talk about the proxy wars or the political maneuvers, but we rarely just sit down and catalog the hardware with the cold eye of a strategic auditor. If you want to understand the strategic depth of Israel's defense requirements, you have to understand the ballistic inventory of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is not just a list of names; it is a roadmap of intent. We are going to go through this alphabetically, an A to Z of aggression, if you will. We are moving from the era of regional nuisance into the era of existential threat. This is about stripping away the propaganda and looking at the physics.
It is about the engineering reality. When you see a missile on a launcher in a parade in Tehran, that represents a specific set of challenges for our Arrow batteries, our David's Sling, and our Iron Dome. We need to know the fuel types, the re-entry speeds, and the payload capacities. Because at the end of the day, neutralizing these threats is a matter of technical precision and intelligence-led targeting, not just luck. We are looking at a system of systems, and that requires a systemic response.
And for our listeners who have been with us for a while, you might remember episode nine hundred eighteen where we talked about the shift to solid fuel and what that means for strategic depth. Today, we are going to expand that into a full-scale audit. We are looking at everything from tactical battlefield rockets to the strategic monsters that are designed with one purpose in mind: reaching the heart of Israel. Why does the fuel type matter? Because it dictates the time-to-launch window. A liquid-fueled missile is a target we can see being prepped for hours. A solid-fueled missile is a ghost that appears, fires, and vanishes in minutes. That is the shift we are tracking today.
Let us start at the top of the alphabet then. We have the Ababil. Now, this is a relatively new name in the ballistic category, though the name has been used for drones for years. Herman, what are we looking at with the Ababil missile specifically?
The Ababil ballistic missile was first unveiled around two thousand twenty-three. It is a small, tactical, short-range missile. It is solid-fueled, which is the first major red flag for us. As we have discussed, solid fuel means it can be stored fully fueled and launched on extremely short notice. We are looking at a range of about eighty-six miles. The inventory is likely in the hundreds because they are relatively cheap to produce. It is in active service, and while eighty-six miles does not reach Jerusalem from Iran, the threat here is the transfer to proxies.
Right, if these are in the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon or even groups in Syria, they become a high-precision threat to our northern communities.
Precisely. They travel at about Mach four or five during the terminal phase. The challenge for the Iron Dome or David's Sling is the sheer volume. They are designed for saturation. If you fire fifty of these at a single military installation, you are testing the reload speed of our interceptors. Its lethality is high for tactical targets, especially because it uses satellite guidance to achieve a circular error probable of under thirty meters.
Moving down the list, we have the Arash series. These are often categorized as unguided rockets, but the newer variants are pushing the boundary.
The Arash is a legacy system, introduced back in the nineteen-nineties, but the current active service status includes the Arash-four. These are typically solid composites now. The inventory is massive, thousands of them. Top speeds are lower, maybe Mach three. The lethality assessment here is low for a single hit, but they are perfect for cluster munition delivery. They use these to pepper a wide area to keep civilians in shelters while the bigger birds are in the air. They are the distraction that drains our interceptor inventory.
Then we have the Ashura. This was a massive leap when it was first tested around two thousand seven.
The Ashura was Iran's first two-stage solid-fuel missile with a range of over twelve hundred miles. It was the predecessor to the Sejjil. While it may not be the primary focus of their current active inventory, its development proved they could master the complex chemistry of large-scale solid rocket motors. It can reach Mach twelve and is absolutely capable of carrying a nuclear payload. It showed the world that Iran was moving away from the North Korean liquid-fuel templates toward an indigenous, survivable strategic force.
Let us talk about the Dezful. This one feels like a significant jump in capability for their short-to-medium range needs.
The Dezful is a huge concern. Introduced in two thousand nineteen, it is an evolution of the Zolfaghar. It is a solid-fuel missile with a range of about six hundred twenty miles. Now, that puts it right on the edge of being able to strike us depending on the launch point in western Iran or Iraq. It is highly active in their inventory, with an estimated count of over two hundred units. It hits Mach seven or eight during re-entry. The Dezful is a challenge because it uses a detachable warhead. When the warhead separates from the body, the radar cross-section becomes much smaller. It is harder for our systems to track a small, falling cone than a massive missile body. Its lethality is high because of its precision. It is accurate enough to hit a specific hangar or a command center.
That brings us to the letter E, and the Emad. This was a game-changer when it first appeared in two thousand fifteen, was it not?
It was. The Emad is a liquid-fueled missile, which means it takes longer to prep, but it was Iran's first long-range missile with a maneuverable re-entry vehicle, or MaRV. The inventory is estimated at around fifty to one hundred launchers. It is a derivative of the Shahab-three, but that maneuverable head is the kicker. Traditional ballistic missiles follow a predictable arc. If you know the launch point and the velocity, you can calculate exactly where it will be in ten minutes. The Emad changes that. It has fins on the warhead that allow it to steer during the terminal phase. If the interceptor is heading for point A, the Emad can shift to point B. It requires our Arrow-three interceptors to have their own high-end maneuverability to keep up. It is absolutely capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, with a throw-weight of about seven hundred fifty kilograms.
That underlines why we are doing this. Knowledge is the first step to neutralization. Let us look at the F category. We have the Fajr-five, which people might recognize from past conflicts, but then we have the big one, the Fattah.
The Fajr-five is mostly a long-range artillery rocket, usually solid-fueled, used by Hamas and Hezbollah. But the Fattah-one and Fattah-two are the "hypersonic" claims Iran made in two thousand twenty-three. They claim these can hit Mach thirteen to fifteen. Whether they can actually maintain that speed while maneuvering is a subject of debate, but we have to treat the threat as real. Mach fifteen shrinks the decision window to almost nothing. If launched from western Iran, a Fattah could reach central Israel in under seven minutes.
Seven minutes. That is barely enough time to get to a shelter, let alone for a command structure to verify the launch and coordinate a response.
The Fattah-two uses a hypersonic glide vehicle. Instead of a high arc that goes into space, it stays lower in the atmosphere and skips along the air, making it nearly impossible for traditional early-warning radars to track until it is very close. This is specifically designed to bypass the Arrow-three, which intercepts in space. If the missile stays below the "space" threshold but moves at Mach ten, it is in a blind spot for many global defense systems. This is where we have to be honest about the limitations of missile defense. It is not a silver bullet. If you have a maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicle, you need a multi-layered, integrated defense that can talk to itself in real-time. We actually touched on this in episode nine hundred twenty-nine when we looked at their targeting shifts.
Moving to G, we have the Ghadr. This is the workhorse of their strategic force.
Introduced around two thousand seven, it is liquid-fueled. There are three variants: the Ghadr-S, F, and H. The Ghadr-F has a range of nearly twelve hundred miles. The inventory is large, hundreds of them. It is in active service and is frequently seen in their underground "missile cities." The top speed is around Mach nine. The challenge here is the sheer number of them. Because they are liquid-fueled, we can potentially see them being prepped via satellite, which gives us a "left-of-launch" opportunity. But if they get off the ground, they are designed to carry heavy payloads, including cluster munitions or, theoretically, a nuclear device. The Ghadr is often cited by Western intelligence as the most likely candidate for their initial nuclear delivery system because of its proven flight record and payload-to-range ratio.
Then we have the Haj Qasem, named after Qasem Soleimani. This one was unveiled in twenty twenty.
The Haj Qasem is a solid-fuel missile with a range of about eight hundred seventy miles. It is essentially a heavy-duty version of the Dezful. It is in active service, and its top speed is around Mach twelve. The lethality assessment is high because it is designed to be a "base-killer." It carries a large warhead and is highly accurate. The challenge for interception is its high terminal velocity and the fact that it is launched from a mobile platform that can be hidden in a standard warehouse.
Moving on to H, we have the Hormuz-one and Hormuz-two. These are interesting because they are anti-radiation missiles.
They are designed to home in on radar signals. They want to blind our Green Pine radars so the rest of the alphabet can get through. They are solid-fueled, introduced around two thousand fourteen, with a range of about one hundred eighty miles. They are essentially a Zolfaghar variant with a seeker head. Top speed is Mach five. If one of these hits a radar installation, the entire defensive umbrella for that sector could go dark. That is why mobile radar and redundancy are so critical for the Israel Defense Forces. We cannot rely on fixed positions.
Let us skip forward to K. This is a heavy-hitting category. We have the Kheybar, the Kheybar-Shekan, and the Khorramshahr.
The Kheybar-Shekan is one of the most dangerous missiles in the world today. Introduced in twenty twenty-two, it is a third-generation solid-fuel missile. It has a range of nine hundred miles, but what makes it special is its weight. It is incredibly light for its range, which means it is very mobile. You can hide these in the back of a standard-looking commercial truck. It hits Mach eight or nine. But the real lethality comes from its maneuverability in the terminal phase. Unlike the Emad, which is a bit clunky, the Kheybar-Shekan can make high-alpha maneuvers. It is designed specifically to "dance" around interceptors. Its inventory is growing rapidly because it is the centerpiece of their modern doctrine.
And what about the Khorramshahr? That is the one that always looks different in the parades. It lacks the fins, right?
Yes, the Khorramshahr is a beast. It is based on the North Korean BM-twenty-five Musudan. It is liquid-fueled, introduced in twenty-seventeen. It has a range of twelve hundred miles, but here is the scary part: it carries a warhead weighing eighteen hundred kilograms. That is nearly two tons of explosives. Most ballistic missiles carry about five hundred to seven hundred kilograms. The Khorramshahr can carry a massive cluster munition payload that could blanket an entire airbase. Or, it could carry a very large, shielded nuclear warhead. Because it has no external fins, it uses thrust vectoring for control. This makes it very sleek and fast, hitting Mach fifteen at higher altitudes. It is a strategic weapon, meant to be a city-killer. The Kheybar variant, or Khorramshahr-four, is even more advanced, with a shorter prep time despite being liquid-fueled.
I think it is important for our listeners to realize that when we talk about these "A to Z" systems, we are not just talking about technology. We are talking about a regime that has spent forty years optimizing for a single mission: the destruction of the Zionist state. Every one of these missiles, from the tiny Ababil to the massive Khorramshahr, is a piece of that puzzle.
It is an ecosystem. Now, let us look at the letter N. We have the Naze'at. This is an older series, unguided, solid-fueled. They have been around since the eighties. They are essentially heavy artillery rockets. Top speed is Mach four. Why do they still have them? Because they have thousands of them. They use them to saturate the border regions. If you fire two hundred Naze'ats, you force the defense to decide: do we use an expensive interceptor on a dumb rocket, or do we let it hit and hope it hits a field? It is a resource depletion strategy. Every interceptor we fire costs significantly more than the rocket it is destroying. That is a math problem we have to solve.
Now, let us talk about the Qiam. This one was used in the attacks on American bases in Iraq and has been seen in Yemen as well.
The Qiam-one was introduced in twenty-ten. It is liquid-fueled and, like the Khorramshahr, it has no fins. This makes it much harder to detect on radar because it has a lower cross-section. It has a range of about five hundred miles. The inventory is likely in the low hundreds. It is highly active. The Qiam is known for its accuracy; it was the missile that hit the Al-Asad airbase with surprising precision. It proved that Iran had moved past the "spray and pray" era of the Scud. It showed they had mastered guidance kits. If they can hit a specific hangar from five hundred miles away, they can hit our power plants, our desalination plants, or our port facilities.
And then there is the Rezvan, introduced in twenty twenty-two.
It is a liquid-fueled, single-stage missile with a range of about four hundred thirty miles. It is essentially a modernized, high-precision Scud. It is fast, cheap, and easy to mass-produce. It is meant to be the "daily driver" of a conflict, something they can fire by the dozen every day to keep the pressure on.
Let us get to the letter S. This is where the heavyweights live. The Sejjil and the Shahab.
The Sejjil is the one that keeps analysts up at night. Introduced in two thousand eight, it is a two-stage, solid-fuel missile. This was the "holy grail" for Iran. Because it is solid-fueled and has a range of twelve hundred miles, it can be hidden in a tunnel, driven out, fired in five minutes, and the launcher can be back under cover before a satellite even registers the heat signature. It completely changes the "left-of-launch" calculus. We cannot rely on catching them while they are fueling. We have to find them while they are moving or in storage. The Sejjil-two hits Mach twelve or thirteen. It is a strategic weapon. Its lethality is extreme. It is designed to carry a nuclear payload. The estimated inventory is relatively small, maybe thirty to fifty units, because they are complex and expensive, but each one is a high-priority target for the IDF.
And the Shahab series? That is the foundation of the whole program.
The Shahab-one and Shahab-two are the old Scuds, liquid-fueled, mostly being phased out or given to proxies. But the Shahab-three is the legend. Introduced in two thousand three, it is the missile that first put Israel in range from Iranian soil. It has a range of eight hundred miles. Top speed is Mach seven. While it is an older design, there are hundreds of them in service. They have been upgraded with better guidance and warheads over the years. They are the backbone of the saturation force. They are the "Nuclear Truck" reality we discussed in episode six hundred ninety-seven.
Then we have the Tondar-sixty-nine. This is an interesting one because it is actually a converted Chinese anti-ship missile.
Yes, it is a solid-fuel missile with a short range of about ninety miles. It is mostly used for coastal defense or tactical strikes. It is not a major threat to the heart of Israel, but it is part of the "wall of fire" strategy to prevent any naval intervention or to strike at our offshore gas rigs. Top speed is Mach three. It is reliable and they have plenty of them.
And finally, we get to the end of the alphabet. The Zelzal and the Zolfaghar.
The Zelzal-three is a heavy unguided rocket, solid-fueled. It is the big brother of the Naze'at. But the Zolfaghar is the real star here. Introduced in twenty-sixteen, it is a solid-fuel, short-range ballistic missile. It has a range of four hundred thirty miles. It has been used in actual combat multiple times, in Syria and against ISIS targets. It hits Mach seven or eight. It is highly accurate and uses a cluster munition warhead very effectively. The inventory is massive—hundreds, maybe thousands. The Zolfaghar is what they use when they want to send a message without starting a world war. But in a full-scale conflict, these would be rained down on our military assembly points and airfields.
So, we have gone from A to Z. When you look at this entire catalog as a single entity, what is the aggregate threat assessment, Herman? How do they actually intend to use this "Alphabet of Aggression"?
The strategy is called "saturation and complexity." They know that the Arrow-three is the best interceptor in the world. They know that David's Sling is incredibly capable. But every battery has a limit. If you fire ten missiles, we hit ten. If you fire a hundred, we might hit ninety-nine. If you fire a thousand, and you mix them up... that is the key. You launch a wave of Shahab-ones and Zelzals to fill the sky and force our radars to track hundreds of targets. Then, while our interceptors are busy, you launch the Kheybar-Shekans and the Fattahs. You use the Hormuz missiles to try and take out the radars. You use the Khorramshahr to force the defense to prioritize a two-ton warhead over smaller ones. It is a coordinated, multi-vector assault designed to overwhelm the decision-making capacity of our defense systems and the physical inventory of our interceptors.
This is why I always argue that a purely defensive posture is a losing game in the long run. We can have the best shields in the world, but if the other guy has a thousand arrows and we only have five hundred shield-plates, eventually an arrow gets through. And if that arrow is carrying a nuclear warhead or a chemical cluster munition, the game is over.
That is why the only real defense is "Left-of-Launch." We have to be able to strike the "missile cities," the storage depots, and the mobile launchers before the button is pressed. Waiting for the launch is a failure of strategy. We must identify the storage nodes and the mobile launcher routes through intelligence-led targeting. This A to Z audit shows that they have built a redundant, resilient infrastructure. You cannot just take out one factory and call it a day. It is a national industry. They have moved from buying Scuds from North Korea to designing indigenous, solid-fuel, hypersonic-capable maneuverable re-entry vehicles. That is a massive leap in forty years. We have to respect the engineering while we prepare to dismantle it.
One thing that struck me during this list was the fuel types. We saw a lot of "solid fuel" for the newer models. For the layperson, why is that the single most important technical detail in this entire discussion?
It is all about the "OODA" loop—Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. If a missile is liquid-fueled, like the old Shahab-three, you have to bring it out of its silo or hangar, put it on the pad, and spend two to four hours pumping highly volatile, corrosive fuel into it. During those four hours, our satellites see the thermal bloom, the support vehicles, and the activity. We can strike it while it is sitting there. It is a sitting duck. But with solid fuel, the fuel is already inside the missile in a stable form. You drive the truck out of a tunnel, you raise the launch rail, you fire, and you leave. The entire process takes less than ten minutes. Solid fuel is the hallmark of a professional, modern military that is serious about survivability. The fact that Iran has transitioned almost its entire tactical and much of its strategic force to solid fuel is the clearest signal of their intent. They are building them to be used in a high-intensity conflict where speed is everything.
And the lethality assessment on the cluster munitions is also worth noting. People focus on the "big bang" of a single warhead, but cluster munitions are designed to shut down an entire airbase. If you spread five hundred sub-munitions over a runway, you cannot launch F-thirty-fives. You are grounded. And if you cannot launch your planes, you cannot perform those "Left-of-Launch" strikes we were talking about. It is a self-reinforcing strategy. They use the missiles to prevent us from stopping the missiles.
It is a sobering picture, Corn. But it is one that our listeners need to hear. There is a lot of talk about "deterrence," but deterrence only works if the other side believes you can stop them or that the cost of trying is too high. By cataloging this arsenal, we are showing exactly what the cost of a failure in defense would look like. It is about clarity. We are not here to spread fear; we are here to provide the data that informs a resolute defense. Israel has the most advanced missile defense architecture in the world because we have to. We are the only country that faces an A to Z threat like this on a daily basis.
Well, I think we have covered the alphabet pretty thoroughly. From the Ababil to the Zolfaghar, the picture is clear. It is an arsenal built for saturation, precision, and eventually, strategic decapitation. The inevitability of technological escalation means we cannot stand still. A secure Israel requires the systematic dismantling of these delivery vectors.
And we will continue to monitor it. As new variants emerge—and they will—we will be here to break down the specs. Because in this part of the world, physics is the only thing that does not lie.
That is a good place to wrap this one up. We picked this topic ourselves today because we felt it was urgent, and I hope you all found this audit as illuminating as we did. If you are interested in the deeper engineering of the solid-fuel transition, definitely go back and listen to episode nine hundred eighteen. It provides a lot of the "how" behind the "what" we discussed today.
And if you want to see the visuals or search our full archive of over nine hundred episodes, head over to myweirdprompts.com. We have everything there, and you can even send us your own thoughts through the contact form.
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Thanks for joining us for episode nine hundred forty-eight. We will be back soon with more from our house here in Jerusalem.
Until next time, stay sharp and stay informed. This has been My Weird Prompts.
See you in the next one. Bye for now.
